Bob Arum had finally gotten what he wanted last Saturday night when Juan Manuel Marquez beat the holy hell out of Mike Alvarado. If it were up to him, Marquez would be immediately forced onto a plane headed to Macau along with Zou Shiming, Jesse Vargas and whoever else he had in mind for the hideous undercard for Marquez's fifth fight with Manny Pacquiao.
For nearly a decade, Pacquiao and Marquez have waged war throughout all of the major stages of their career with only their fourth fight having a definitive outcome, which was Marquez knocking Pacquiao way the hell out in December of 2012. At that point, Marquez knew that he finally got the monkey off of his back that defined his career up to that point and Arum saw dollar signs for a rematch that never came.
Pacquiao instead took a confidence booster against Brandon Rios, who was beaten in the same easy fashion as Alvarado was against Marquez and righted an earlier wrong by avenging a loss to Timothy Bradley last April. To come full circle, that victory came after Marquez fell short to Bradley in a competitive fight last October.
Though the table should be set and ready for another clash between the two rivals, it might be too early to fill out your Tecate rebates. There are still plenty of things that need to be resolved before we hear their names before these two write another violent chapter in their epic rivalry
Marquez isn't exactly warming up to the idea of fighting Pacquiao again, even sounding dismissive about wanting to tarnish the ultimate achievement of his career. There are other factors that are making Marquez hesitant besides principle, including how much he's going to be compensated for the fight.
For Pacquiao IV and against Bradley, Marquez pocketed $6 million in those fights as well as making $1.4 million against Alvarado this weekend. Would Marquez be satisfied for slightly more than what he got paid last time, even though he won? Absolutely not.
Not to mention that Marquez felt the judges in the United States would never give him a decision against Pacquiao, even suggesting after their third fight that he would refuse to fight Pacquiao unless he came to Mexico. So if Marquez doesn't think he'll get a fair shake in America, how would he feel if the fight does take place in China, where Pacquiao's fading star is shining brighter than it is over here?
What about Pacquiao? For a fighter who's greatness in the ring is only matched by his ineptitude of his own finances, he will not be willing to take a pay cut like he did against Bradley and Rios. With his career winding down and the still unresolved issue of him owing nearly $70 million in unreported taxes, Pacquiao is not going to want to dip below his usual $20 million range, especially when he's fighting someone as dangerous as Marquez.
So that leaves us with two fighters who will presumably be standing firm on eight-digit paydays, meaning that the promotion will have to be nothing short of a rousing success at the box-office to give both men what they feel they deserve. As exciting as their four fights have been, it's not out of the question to suggest that the fight may be handicapped going in due to the fatigue of fans seeing the same match up for a fifth time.
Not even a full day after the Alvarado victory, Top Rank publicly announced that Pacquiao/Ruslan Provodnikov is on the table if Marquez decided to forgo that fight. Not only that, but in recent weeks, Provodnikov has changed his stance from not wanting to fight his former sparring partner to now taking the opportunity and money that fight would provide.
A Provodnikov match would guarantee Pacquiao's large purse demand without having to cut corners to make sure the challenger would be properly compensated. Same would apply for a trilogy fight with Bradley once he made a successful return in the ring. Provodnikov and Bradley combined will probably accept less money than Marquez may be prepared to demand.
If Marquez is serious about retiring, then there's really nothing stopping him as he's achieved just about everything he could possibly do in his 21 year career. His only inspiration to continue fighting is a title in a fifth weight class, and while Pacquiao has a belt, so does Shawn Porter. Recent reports of the increasingly chummy relationship between Arum and Oscar De La Hoya could potentially open up a Marquez/Porter match where Marquez will have more negotiating power and a chance to win a title.
While it's expected that the powers that be will be doing everything in their power to make this realistic fight happen for the end of the year, they can't ignore the real predicament that floats over this fight like a bad storm cloud. Pacquiao and Marquez do not need each other anymore and trying to push them closer together may just force them further apart.
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