Danger Close: The Sergio Martinez vs. Miguel Cotto Prediction Piece!

In boxing, the fights that often make the most sense are the ones we never seem to get. Riddick Bowe never got to fight Lennox Lewis, George Foreman missed his chance to fight Mike Tyson and we are never going to see Floyd Mayweather against Manny Pacquiao. That alone makes the fight between Sergio Martinez and Miguel Cotto all the more important, even with the championship and historical implications on the line this Saturday.

Martinez has been out of the ring for nearly a year, recovering from his injuries he suffered from his fights against Martin Murray and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Cotto, who has gone 3-2 in his last five fights is moving up for the opportunity to win the Middleweight title and to become the first Puerto Rican fighter to win titles in four weight classes. Has Cotto confused his diva-like demands outside of the ring for what he can bring inside the ring, or is he moments away from making history?

Power: Martinez
Speed: Martinez
Style: Martinez
X-Factor: Martinez's age, time away from the ring and injuries may slow him down.
Recent Form: Martinez

The key to this fight is what Cotto takes with him in his first fight at Middleweight, because he didn't really take the world by storm at 154 as he did in the lower divisions. Cotto rebuilt himself after the brutal losses to Antonio Margarito and Manny Pacquiao by moving up in weight, and he benefitted all the better thanks to the shallow talent pool he was swimming in.

His best win was his title winning effort against the overmatched and feather-fisted Yuri Foreman, and wins over Ricardo Mayorga and a Margarito rematch came when both men were well past their sell-by dates. When Cotto did fight a real Junior Middleweight in Austin Trout in hopes to get back on track after losing to Floyd Mayweather, Trout handled Cotto with ease and won a clear decision.

Come to think of it, when has Cotto ever looked good against an opponent who he wasn't able to back up? Sure, he won against Shane Mosley and Joshua Clottey while getting beaten up in the process, but look how he performed when he was unable to deal with likes of Pacquiao, Margarito and Mayweather. They all beat Cotto because they were all able to back Cotto up with their speed, size or power.

This is the total opposite case when it comes to Martinez. Martinez has been towered over by very physically imposing foes throughout the course of his Middleweight reign, but one wouldn't guess it after seeing what Martinez did to the majority of them. Opponents who tried to pressure Martinez like Kelly Pavlik or Matthew Macklin had success early, but were a bloody mess soon after they felt they were making headway.

Sure, Martinez didn't look good in his last fight against Martin Murray, but can he really be blamed for that? He won a close fight against a very good Middleweight in what was the latest entry in one of the toughest schedules any fighter has had to consistently face throughout the last few years. Cotto decisively lost the last two fights where he fought an elevated level of competition, Martinez is still beating them up.

Coming into the ring, Martinez will have an advantage in size and reach as well as everything else, so Cotto's usual strategy of jabbing his way in to set up a left-hook to the body may not work out too well. Now that Cotto is trained by Freddie Roach, he's probably got it through his head that he just needs to get right into the line of fire and land some big leather while minimizing the return fire from a guy with power in both hands and too much speed to see them coming. 

Martinez will look to strafe Cotto with both hands right away to test that willingness to engage, trying to see how Cotto will try to bat him away or if he even can. As Martinez begins to pile up the points, Cotto will abandon his strategy as he always does and will try to fight it out once he feels the fight is getting out of reach. In the later rounds where Cotto usually is too tired to mount a late offensive and Martinez does his best work, we may see a career-ending beating take place if Martinez's legs are fresh enough to turn up the heat.

Unless one of the ridiculous demands Cotto made in the negotiations prior to the fight is Martinez coming to the ring handcuffed and blindfolded, it looks like he's running right into trouble. Martinez is faster, stronger and busier than Trout and probably hits just as hard as Margarito did with the loaded gloves. A miracle may be needed here, but if not, hopefully Roach will know when to let Cotto know he's had enough.

Martinez has been waiting to come to Cotto's backyard for a fight, and it looks like he's bringing an ass-kicking with him. Expect this one-sided show to end by the 9th and Sergio Martinez winning the biggest fight of his underappreciated career.